It’s A New (Pre)Season, But Old Questions Remain

Take a moment and think about the last few months in sports for Pittsburgh.  The Pirates have their first winning season in 21 years, a feat that quite honestly, I wasn’t sure I’d ever live to see.  The normally mighty Pittsburgh Steelers are headed for an abysmal season, in which I’ll be stunned – completely stunned – if they win more than 5 games.  The Pittsburgh Penguins didn’t win another Stanley Cup, and if you’ve been watching since they skated away from the post-game handshake with the victor Boston Bruins, they’re made a few moves that will leave you scratching your head.

Sure, they’ve played two pre-season games and they’ve not looked particularly good in either of them, but I’m far less concerned about the Penguins than I am say the Steelers.  But I’d like to take a look at three issues I believe the Penguins will be forced to face before the puck drops next year.  Yes, I’m looking at things a year from now…

The removal of Dan Bylsma as coach

If you follow me at all, you know I wasn’t in favor of bringing back Dan Bylsma after last season’s epic collapse against the Bruins.  But Ray Shero convinced owners Ron Burkle and Mario Lemieux that Bylsma should be retained.  The only way it made sense to me at the time was if the guy Shero wanted wasn’t available.

After a few months of thinking about it, a few things have become clear to me.  One, he may have been given an extension, and even a public endorsement from Shero and company, but the one thing he wasn’t given was the all clear sign.  If you want further proof, on August 9, the Penguins hired former NHL head coach Jacques Martin, who’s a known disciplinarian and defensive minded coach, to be an assistant to Bylsma.

On the surface, Shero and Bylsma also have the side gig of leading Team USA into the Olympics in Sochi, Russia.  Bylsma has no experience leading a team against international competition, and can glean advice off Martin in a number of areas to help him there.  Martin can also be a voice that will command respect in a dressing room, so if Bylsma gets overwhelmed at some point, chaos shouldn’t ensue into an all-out meltdown.

But more telling is that for the first time since Ray Shero installed Michel Therrien at Wilkes-Barre Scranton in 2005 as his bail out button for the inevitable Ed Olczyk firing, Shero has an option in house should Bylsma cave under all of this pressure and need to be removed as the head coach of this team.  I know Tony Granato is also there and has experience leading a team, but Martin plays the style that I think Shero feels this team should play, that Bylsma has moved away from.

I strongly believe that Shero wanted Bylsma as head coach for Team USA, and after Brian Burke was fired in Toronto, wanted to ensure Bylsma got that opportunity.  Shero likes Bylsma, but I think Shero also knows that the shelf life for Bylsma can be counted in days, and not years.  Bylsma knows that this is it for him.  Sochi and Team USA aside, if the Penguins make the playoffs 5 straight years and get bounced before reaching the Cup Finals, especially if they lose to a lesser team in another complete meltdown, Bylsma can’t be retained and I think he knows it.

As far as the contract extension, I certainly didn’t agree with it at the time, but the more I think about it, the more it makes sense.  Before Shero made the official announcement that Bylsma would be back, a number of places were reporting that should Bylsma be let go, that he would go to the top of list for teams looking for a head coach.  When Bylsma is removed as coach, teams are going to want him.  I believe the Penguins can leverage his contract as a means to extract an asset.  Some team might be willing to give up a 3^rd Round Pick or some other asset to talk to a former Stanley Cup winning coach with the intention of hiring him.  Otherwise, unless he is fired outright which seems unlikely, Bylsma would simply be forced to sit around (or work in a different capacity) until his contract runs out, which seems unlikely.

The failure to acquire the right kind of talent

This failure falls directly on Shero.  And while I think this year he is operating within the confines of what Dan Bylsma wants his team to look like, Shero is in direct contradiction to what he says every year about his team needing to be bigger and stronger.  Douglas Murray, who some might argue could be timed in a speed skate with a sundial, will be missed from a physical standpoint.  Matt Cooke wasn’t very big, but his heart made him seem like he was 6’2” 210lbs. at times.  Tyler Kennedy, who also wasn’t very big but could be fast and physical if motivated properly will also be missed, at least the version of him when he was properly motivated.

At the deadline last season, after Shero acquired Iginla, he talked about how it helped address the team’s size and toughness issues.  The team as it happens to be comprised this year?  It’s missing a lot of grit, and a lot more size.  That was noticeably on display when I watched the Penguins get man-handled by Detroit in a pre-season game last night.  Crosby was stepping up in the middle of scrums to defend himself.  Really?  Has this team learned nothing?  Or do they just suffer from Alzheimer’s until the trading deadline, when Shero has an epiphany about his team needing to get tougher.  Every year, this team is somehow not nearly as strong or big as the team they finished with, and every year, fans worry about Crosby as he sees fit to stand up and defend himself if nobody else will, and yet every season, it’s addressed too little, too late.

Jussi Jokinen and Matt D’Agostini, who are both guys who can score and put up points, but on this team, they’re relegated to the third line, likely with Brandon Sutter as the center.  Sutter plays with an edge, but it’s very seldom you’ll see either Jokinen or D’Agostini throw a check.  This team isn’t built to be tough.  If given the opportunity, they might put up 6 goals a night and bury you in shots, but they’re not going to be able to physically answer many bells.

At the moment, the Penguins are over the salary cap, a line they have to be under prior to the start of the season.  Everybody, including myself, figured Matt Niskanen would be the party shipped out, but I’m starting to feel as though Shero might have to do something creative.  Unfortunately, one of the most likely sought after guys is going to be Brooks Orpik, who’s a free agent at the end of this season.  I feel more strongly now than I did at the end of last season that Orpik, not Niskanen, will be moved prior to the start of the season.  And that makes this team even weaker to play against.

The eventual retooling of the Pittsburgh Penguins

The Penguins have been lucky, their defense has held up well the last couple of years with all of the prospects they have.  In some cases, those guys are being shipped out for players elsewhere, as was the case with Joe Morrow going for Brenden Morrow last season.  But a lot of this team is getting older, and maybe, just maybe, when the eventual removal of Dan Bylsma comes, this team is going to have a bit of a different look to it.

At first glance, the forwards over 30 are Craig Adams at 36, Pascal Dupuis at 34, Chris Kunitz at 33.  The other forwards over 30 are Steve MacIntyre at 33, Andrew Ebbett at 30 and Jussi Jokinen at 30.  The number of players isn’t bad, considering only four are likely to see substantial NHL time this season, but the quality is alarming.  The most valuable to the Penguins are Adams, who is one of the only guys Bylsma trusts on the penalty kill, and although his game has deteriorated over the past few years, the Penguins don’t have anybody to replace him.  Kunitz and Dupuis are Sidney Crosby’s linemates.  Sure, they’re extremely productive, but do you think that is going to carry over for another 3 years?  Kunitz is a wrecking ball at times, but his injuries are getting more frequent as his body starts breaking down.  Other than Beau Bennett, and maybe the just signed with the ink on the paper not yet dry Jean-Sebastien Dea, don’t have anybody suited for eventual top six forward duty.  That’s awful.

What’s worse is the forward prospects the Penguins do have suited for 3^rd or 4^th line duty is numerous, except that most of them aren’t ready to play every day in the NHL yet.  The closest are Adam Payerl and Harry Zolnierczyk, who was acquired earlier this offseason.  Guys like Zack Sill, Tom Kuhnhackl, and Dominik Uher will be in the NHL eventually, and one hopes sooner than later.  Player development, outside of top prospects, is and remains suspect for this team.

Goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury has to feel downright unwanted at this point.  He played in parts of just 5 games this past playoff run, and has lost the support of the fans.  Even with Shero and Bylsma both giving him a vote of confidence, Fleury knows his time here is coming to a close, and the Penguins have emphatically given him reason to feel that way, signing Eric Hartzell and drafting Tristan Jarry.  One of those two will be the future netminder going forward.  But Fleury will likely be kept around for the remainder of his contract to buy them time to develop, and then allowed to leave, although I wouldn’t put it past Shero to move him if he feels he can at some point before that, although if he moves him now Fleury’s value is at an all-time low, so not much would be coming back.

Defensively, oddly enough is where there’s reason for some concern.  Newly returning Rob Scuderi, coined “The Piece” by fans and media after he helped the Penguins win their last Stanley Cup in 2009, signed a 4 year deal to return at the age of 34.  That means he’ll be 38 by the end of his contract here.  Scuderi is a defensive defenseman, a guy who’s not going to join the rush very often, and is incredibly dependable in his own end.  He’ll be part of a shut-down paring with somebody, rumored to be Brooks Orpik provided Orpik isn’t moved prior to the start of the season.  Orpik is the team’s only dependable physical defenseman, and he’s in the last year of his contract, with it looking like he won’t be retained.

Paul Martin finally proved last season he was worth 5 million a season, except his contract expires at the end of next season.  Kris Letang, defensive short-comings and all, is signed for 8 more seasons.  This is the last year of Matt Niskanen’s contract, and while he’s proven to be dependable, he hardly strikes me as a guy who can’t be replaced.  Deryk Engelland is a nuclear deterrent, who does his best to play a simple game and not hurt his team with his play, but Engelland doesn’t have the speed or the skill to be a regular part of this defensive corps, no matter what Dan Bylsma believes.  He’d be better suited for spot duty in games against more physical teams.

Simon Despres looked like he could be a top four defenseman for this team for years to come last year, when Bylsma didn’t keep him on the shortest of leashes and let him learn from his mistakes.  Robert Bortuzzo looks like he’s going to make the top six this year, and will take the minutes Mark Eaton had last season.  Bortuzzo is more physical than Eaton, and like Despres, if he’s allowed to make mistakes and grow, should be hands down a better defenseman than Eaton, and maybe a candidate for a shutdown role in the future.

Brian Dumoulin and Scott Harrington are next up in the pipeline, and it can be argued should be good enough to crack the NHL roster this year.  Both are solid two way defensemen, with Harrington in particular looking like Scuderi 2.0 at times.  Harrison Ruopp, who was acquired last year from Phoenix in the Zbynek Michalek deal, is a big physical defenseman, and maybe the eventual replacement for Brooks Orpik.  Philip Samuelsson is also a guy who should get to see some NHL action this season.  He’s a two way defenseman, and is starting to embrace his “inner Ulf” with more gritty play.

Derrick Pouliot and Olli Maatta, both drafted in the 1^st Round in the 2012 NHL Draft, look to be at least a season or two away, but Pouliot looks a lot like a young Brian Campbell, offensively dominant at times and still needs to work a lot on his defensive game.  Maatta plays a non-flashy game built around strong defense, but is a very mobile skater.

The problem therein is by the time Pouliot and Matta, or even Ruopp and Samuelsson make the NHL roster, guys who could have shown them the ropes and helped them develop on the NHL level, Paul Martin and Brooks Orpik, might be long gone.  The Pens have a solid defensive corps, but they’re either really young or on the wrong side of 30.

In Closing

The Penguins aren’t quite the superpower they were heading into the playoffs last season.  They don’t have the salary cap space to go out and make any more of those big, splashy moves, not for a while at least.  They should still make the playoffs, but with the way their division is now set up, I’m not sure they’ll be able to win their division.

It’s going to be a tougher road.  Columbus is a much improved team, and playing in the east will only help them.  They’re starting to figure it out.  Philadelphia should be improved, and the Islanders gave the Pens a handful in the playoffs last year.  The Rangers and the Penguins always seem to be in a bit of a dog fight, and now Washington is in the mix as well, and that always seems to bring out the worst in the Penguins.  Again, even with the new setup, I feel they should make the playoffs.  Don’t discount that Detroit is now in the East as well, even if they’re not in the Penguins division, they’re now conference competition.

I don’t think Dan Bylsma will be the coach at this time next year, but then, I felt he wouldn’t be the coach now, so my opinion obviously is my own and wasn’t shared by senior Penguins management and ownership.  At the least, I feel Jacques Martin will be the interim coach upon Bylsma’s dismissal, and if Bylsma is dismissed after the Penguins lose in the playoffs, Martin might be the next coach period.

Time will tell, but I’m glad hockey is back on the horizon.  I miss it in the off-season, so I love this time of year, the excitement and the hope it brings.  How do you feel hockey fans?  Did you miss it too?

FOR PENGUINS, CHANGE IS INEVITABLE, NECESSARY

You have to believe at some point in the last 36 hours Mario Lemieux has walked into a room and closed the door with Penguins GM Ray Shero.  I would imagine the conversation was hardly threatening, given that Shero has the full backing of ownership, and most certainly proved his worth over the last few years.  But I would imagine the conversation, however brief, went something like this:

Lemieux: “Ray, this is the fourth year in a row this team has completely collapsed in the playoffs.  About Dan, are we sure he’s the right coach going forward?”

Shero: “Mr. Lemieux, I believe in Dan.  He’s an excellent coach, and he’s won a Stanley Cup for us in the past five years.  I’m not sure there’s a better qualified coach for us.”

Lemieux: “Ray, that’s what I want you to find out. Quietly look at some names that might be available, and please get back to me.  The way we were outplayed is unacceptable.”

If you don’t think a conversation like that has happened already, you’re probably not looking at the Penguins coaching situation with a clear sense of objectivity yet.  The Pittsburgh Penguins, winners of the NHL Trade Deadline that brought the likes of Jarome Iginla, Douglas Murray, Brenden Morrow, and Jussi Jokinen, fell flat in the playoffs… again.  Even with that all-star roster they had composed, they couldn’t find a way to work together as a team.  After dispatching teams without a lot of Stanley Cup experience in the Islanders and Senators, the Penguins ran into the ultimate definition of a team in the Boston Bruins.  Boston lived and breathed as one, and they dispatched the Penguins in four games, allowing only two goals in four games.  That’s incredible.

It’s also the epitome of the Penguins last four playoff runs.  They don’t just lose – no – they lose in an epic meltdown.  And I believe, five years after Dan Bylsma replaced Michel Therrien in the middle of a season, to lead this Penguins team to a Stanley Cup win, that it’s time he is shown the very same door that his predecessor was shown.  Make no mistake, this isn’t entirely on Bylsma’s coaching ability, the players themselves should shoulder a lot of the blame, but I believe it should be the call after looking at the following:

1. Bylsma’s refusal to make changes to his game plan.

Make no mistake; Bylsma was outcoached in these playoffs.  Bruins coach Claude Julien made him look pedestrian, but so did Jack Capuano of the Islanders and Paul MacLean of the Senators, the only difference was that Julien had the roster and the experience to win, because if Capuano or MacLean had more of either or both, Pittsburgh might not have escaped either round.  Capuano knew how to beat Pittsburgh, he just lacked the veteran support and his players weren’t ready for the fight that had to be done.  On that note, the Penguins had the experience and the firepower that they could sit back and take advantage of the mistakes the Islanders made to make them pay.

The same could be said of MacLean.  Even though the Senators only won one game against the Penguins, it can be said that Pittsburgh owned most of the breaks, if a few more had fallen Ottawa’s way that could easily be a seven game series.  Penalty trouble allowed the Penguins to dispatch the Senators much like it did the Islanders.  That wasn’t good game planning, as much as risk taking and hoping that you come out on top.  For the Penguins, it worked, but it could have easily gone the other way.

The problem was it was an easy road for the Penguins.  At no point did this team come together; it was Crosby’s team, and he was augmented by the likes of Iginla, Morrow and Murray.  Shero, maybe to his discredit, refused to shake up team chemistry, and didn’t deal off any roster players.  Initially, this could have been viewed as a good thing as every team wants and needs depth.  It seemed like a great idea, except that nobody had a clearly defined role.  Left to Bylsma’s devices, Morrow and Iginla played all over the place.  They couldn’t gel with potential line mates, and as a result, were treated no differently than the Tyler Kennedy’s or Matt Cooke’s of the world, but I would argue that strategy played against the Pens as much as it originally appeared to be a great idea.

The Penguins needed some bloodletting.  Remember the trades of the first two Stanley Cup wins for Pittsburgh?  Major trades sent good players out in order to bring good players in.  John Cullen had to go for Ron Francis to come in, and so on.  The teams were forced to grow together, and in the playoffs, they had to rely on each other in order to win.  That didn’t happen here, and it should have.

Bylsma was content to not waste a second thought on game plans.  He was like a child developing motor skills, continually pounding a square peg into a round hole, and not quite ever grasping the concept that maybe he wasn’t doing it right.  Rather than try for matchup advantages, to keep Crosby or Malkin away from key players, Bylsma continued to throw them out there, in the hopes that something would work.  That, my friends, is the very definition of insanity; doing the same thing over and over in hopes that it yields a different result.  It also brings me to my second issue on why Bylsma has to go…

2. He clearly doesn’t have control of his hockey team.

The Penguins players are going to give Bylsma a vote of confidence.  Nobody should expect anything less.  Bylsma is a player friendly coach.  He’s not Michel Therrien or Kevin Constantine, a guy who forces his players to play to the best of their ability all the time, and thus work to get better.  In approach, he’s the Charmin toilet paper to their respective sandpaper.  Nobody wants to get rid of a boss who has fun with you, and lets you get away with murder sometimes.  Nobody’s any different in that approach.  The problem is Bylsma spent too much time this season and previous seasons stating the following: “We just didn’t play our game tonight” or “We just didn’t get to our game plan fast enough.”  That is nothing more than an excuse.

You can get away with saying that once in a while, but honestly, if you have to parade it out after just about every loss, somebody should honestly start asking “why”?  If the team truly bought into Bylsma’s system, you’d think that wouldn’t come up so much.  The truth is that the Penguins have tuned their coach out.  You think Bylsma told them to go out and lose their cool in game 2 of the Boston series, the very defining point of why the star studded Penguins team failed in these playoffs?  How about the fight in game 1 with Malkin and Bergeron?  Think Bylsma wanted to be without Malkin for five minutes?  The truth is, the Penguins played just like their leader does; he’s got tremendous skill, but isn’t above getting frustrated and doing something stupid in a fit of rage.  Oh yeah, and he wears an 87 on his back.

Crosby is the leader of this team – unquestioned.  And just like the superstar that preceded him (you know, the legendary owner of the franchise) he gets to call the shots.  People said for years that Lemieux carried similar pull when he played, but I’m thinking after Lemieux the owner saw his players do that in game 2 of the Boston series, that he might have realized that employing a coach whose demands mean little to the players might not be the way to go in the future.  Lemieux isn’t going to overstep his bounds and force Shero to do something he doesn’t want to do, but I’m guessing the mere suggestion is probably enough for Shero to see the writing on the wall: Dan Bylsma’s future as Penguin coach is coming to a close.

3. Roster changes are coming. Accountability is needed.

Perhaps one of my biggest pet peeves with Dan Bylsma is his misuse of talent.  Bylsma prefers to go with veterans rather than rookies or younger players.  Players like Robert Bortuzzo and Simon Despres should have been playing in these playoffs.  They can bring more to the table than the Deryk Engelland’s and Mark Eaton’s of the world.  Whoever the coach is for next year’s training camp, will have a few noticeable changes to deal with.  The days of playing veterans over younger players should be over, especially given how the salary cap is going down.  Engelland is an ideal 7^th defenseman, and he’s OK to put out there against a team like Philadelphia or when one of their players needs a game off due to injury, but he should in no way be one of the top six defenseman.  Bylsma loves him, played him regularly in the playoffs, even when Engelland took costly penalties or was just too slow to be effective out there.  If Bylsma won’t evolve, you have to find somebody who can and will.

Of everybody acquired at the deadline, the only player with a remote chance of coming back (other than Jokinen, who’s still under contract) is Jarome Iginla.  In spite of Bylsma’s misuse of him, Iginla wants a cup, and realizes Pittsburgh presents as good an opportunity as anybody in order to do so before the end of his career, but Iginla staying likely means that one or more of the Penguins forwards who are unrestricted free agents, guys like Pascal Dupuis, Matt Cooke or Craig Adams likely won’t be back.  Dupuis loves Pittsburgh, but even if he takes below market value again to return, Iginla’s presence could mean decreased ice time.  Let’s not forget Beau Bennett is also due for a full season in Pittsburgh, and he should primarily play a top six role.  And suddenly, you begin to see the problem that Ray Shero faces.  So much talent, and not enough places to put them, and some popular Penguins might not be coming back.

Plus, you need a coach who can call BS when it’s needed.  Evgeni Malkin is one of Bylsma’s favorite players, and Bylsma lets him have free reign a majority of the time.  For as good as Malkin is offensively, he can be just as good defensively, he just needs somebody to make him think that way, all the time.  It’s not going to be Bylsma, which is why you see Malkin make costly turnovers a lot in crucial situations.  Malkin is an elite talent, and there are times when he’s every bit Sidney Crosby’s equal, but he dangles far too much, and without Crosby’s discipline.  Crosby knows when to pull it in.  Malkin knows he should, but sometimes he wants to help so much that he does too much, and the Penguins get into trouble with him.  A good coach will work with Malkin and set up the parameters for Malkin to improve upon in the offseason.  I’m betting Bylsma hasn’t done a lot to grow Malkin’s defensive abilities lately, not as much as conditioning coach Mike Kadar has done for Malkin’s conditioning, anyway.

4. To the victor goes the spoils, and the loser, the spoilage.

Rest assured, even if Shero gives Bylsma a vote of confidence, and Bylsma returns for another season, the unwavering support is gone.  It has to be.  Mario Lemieux knows, and so does Ray Shero.  Shero isn’t going to make any snap decisions, and nor should he.  But Bylsma’s failed four times with his teams since taking Therrien’s team to win the Stanley Cup.  Every offseason, the collective from the fan base gets louder; Dan Bylsma is nearing his expiration date as the coach of this team.

If you hold onto him past that date, you run the risk of him spoiling more of the franchise.  If Shero gives him one more year, then next year, the fan base might look at Shero as part of the problem if Bylsma fails to succeed again.  That’s the risk, but what about the players?  You also want somebody who’s setting goals for this team to improve upon.  Malkin is a key example as I stated above, but every player should have a clear cut goal that the coaching staff wants of them.  You want somebody who cultivates a team and makes it strive for more.  If you’re not doing your job, you sit, and figure out how to improve for the next game.  This team is burning their prime years being adequate.  This isn’t a hockey team that’s built to be adequate.  It’s built to be a juggernaut, one of the best teams in the East, and a perennial Stanley Cup contender, but it’s shortcomings are numerous and their claim of being the best has taken another shot.  At this point, the team is merely good.

Some fans might wonder why Bylsma can do so well in the regular season, and so poorly in the playoffs.  The solution I think is simple: game planning.  In the regular season, you might have as little as 24 hours to prepare for your next opponent, and teams rarely face the same opponent often enough to really come up with a specific strategy to beat them.  Bylsma can trot out a team that’s got enough firepower that it can win most of those head to head matchups, not because they’re that much better, but because nobody has the time to develop a strategy to shut down Pittsburgh on most nights.  In the playoffs, teams spend hours breaking down your weaknesses to turn them into advantages for their team.  Bylsma is easily outclassed in the playoffs because somebody can come up with an effective game plan, and Bylsma can’t efficiently counterattack.  I really think it’s that simple.

My guess is we should know by the end of week of this week about the fate of Dan Bylsma, likely by Thursday or Friday.  Whatever Ray Shero decides, the fan base should back him.  But if his decision is to keep Bylsma, it should only be because the candidate that he wants isn’t available… yet.  Make no mistake, if the Penguins don’t replace Bylsma, and they suffer a similar fate next year, everybody has to be held accountable – Shero for not identifying a change was necessary and Lemieux for not forcing one.  It’s not because the Penguins can’t get back to the Stanley Cup, it’s because of the way that they’re losing.  There is no disgrace in losing like the Penguins did in the final two games of the Boston series.  Tuukka Rask was unstoppable.  Boston’s team defense was smothering.  They lost to a team that was simply better, no matter if anybody wants to hear it or not.  It’s because of games like game 2 against the Bruins, where the Pens tuned out coaching and imploded.  Those games say a lot about the character of their team.  I’m guessing neither Ray Shero nor Mario Lemieux liked what it said about them.  Here’s hoping they don’t stay silent about it.